On December 24, 2018, IDC China released the top ten predictions of China's ICT market in 2019 and the relevant market forecast analysis in 2019.
 
　　技术变革篇

1. In 2019, more than 65% of smart terminal products introduced artificial intelligence applications, including mobile phones and smart home products. More importantly, more than 10% of commercial end products in 2019 have also begun to use artificial intelligence applications, and commercial office assistants have become a new bright spot. By 2022, 40% of commercial end products will use artificial intelligence.
 
2. With the improvement of the ecosystem, the backward computing performance of the terminal has become an important direction for future development. It is estimated that 67% of smart home devices will be connected to the home Internet platform in 2019. The establishment of the cloud game platform will help reduce the hardware requirements for the game terminal equipment, and the online game will be further centralized, which will have an impact on the traditional hardware manufacturers. In the VR/AR market, 5G will effectively solve the delay and cost problems faced by VR devices, and reduce the hardware requirements for local devices through cloud rendering technology. The online VR game market revenue growth rate will reach 35% in 2019. More than 10% of users in 2021 will consider a 5G connection VR for a more interactive experience. In the education market, 20% of education users will consider virtualization solutions in 2019.
 
3. More than 20% of consumers in 2021 will consider establishing their own home storage network, with the arrival of 5G and consumers' emphasis on security and privacy. Consumers will rethink how to save and manage their own photos, videos, materials and more.

Consumer change articles
 
4. The trend of population aging is accelerating, and the average annual impact of terminal shipments of 1-2% will be negative in the next decade. Especially in the education, children's watches and other markets will have a negative impact. At the same time, the middle-aged and old-age terminal products have become a new bright spot. In 2021, more than 22% of the elderly over 65 years old will consider trying tablets, smart homes, smart wearable devices and other products.
 
5. Consumption upgrades continue to drive future market growth and price increases. For example, by 2022, the average unit price of smartphones will reach 416 US dollars, an increase of 29% in 5 years. But at the same time, as the customer base grows larger, the market will shift from consumption to consumption grading. In 2019, the exchange rate factor will cause a 3% positive increase in the average unit price of all end products.
 
Future work articles

6. The digital transformation of enterprises has entered the multi-innovation stage, and more enterprises will realize the transformation and upgrading of enterprises through diversified terminal products. In 2020, 50% of education and large enterprise market users consider using VR/AR products, large-screen electronic whiteboards, tablets, smart bracelets and other products to enhance the office efficiency of enterprises, as well as direct interaction between human and machine.
 
7. Commercial operating system platforms are becoming increasingly competitive. More than 10% of commercial customers in 2019 will replace their computers with the win10 operating system. Domestically produced terminal products will surface, and it is expected that about 5% of the government and related large enterprises will choose localized terminals.

Terminal screen change articles

8. Due to the fragmentation of terminal products, the screen size of the terminal has increased. It is estimated that in 2019, smartphones with 6-inch and above screens will account for more than 70%, and the proportion of OLED screens will continue to expand in terms of screen materials. It is estimated that at the end of 2019, the proportion of OLED screens on the terminal screen will exceed 25%, and the proportion of OLED screens in the smartphone market will reach 38%.
 
Channel City Transformation

9. New opportunities in the 2-4 market. Due to a combination of factors such as population migration, 5G, and urbanization. China's terminal market growth drivers are shifting from the 5-6 market to the 2-4 market. It is estimated that the overall terminal market 2-4 market growth rate will reach 8% in 2019.
 
10. With the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, more than 5% of enterprises began to think about the business model of DaaS. 2019 The number of users in China's DaaS reached 8.3 million, and the average contribution per agent reached 392 yuan per month.

Source: IDC China